GTA 6: Finally Has A Release…Year
Take-Two recently released their earnings report, and there is one section that has caught a lot of attention. Looking ahead to the future, Take-Two has declared Fiscal 2025 as a highly anticipated year for the company. Based on the report, in Fiscal 2025, Take-Two plans to release several groundbreaking titles that they believe will set new industry standards. They are projecting over $8 billion in Net Bookings and over $1 billion in Adjusted Unrestricted Operating Cash Flow. Furthermore, they expect to maintain this momentum and achieve even higher levels of operating results in Fiscal 2026 and beyond.
The mention of $8 billion in Net Bookings strongly suggests that Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6) is on the horizon. While Rockstar, the developer of GTA, has released only minimal teasers, significant leaks have revealed a game that appears to be vast, detailed, and promising, even in its early stages of production.
The earnings report indicates that GTA 6 is likely to be released in Fiscal Year 2025, which falls between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025. Based on historical patterns, a holiday release in 2024 seems probable, as many major games aim for that window, even though it tends to be a crowded period. However, recent game delays have pushed some titles to the following spring or summer, resulting in a more congested release schedule. Notable releases during this period include Redfall, Jedi Survivor, Tears of the Kingdom, Diablo 4, and Final Fantasy XVI.
To provide context, it’s worth mentioning that GTA 5 was released in September 2013, before the holiday season. If GTA 6 follows a similar timeline, there would be an 11-year gap between the releases of the two games. This prolonged wait can be attributed to the success of Red Dead Redemption 2 and the overwhelming popularity of GTA 5, which became the bestselling game of all time across multiple console generations and generated billions through GTA Online.
Considering the rapid expansion of the video game industry over the past decade, it is highly likely that GTA 6, unless faced with unexpected setbacks, will be the fastest-selling game in history. It could potentially surpass GTA 5’s record of earning $1 billion within three days of release. If the game maintains long-term success, it may even outsell GTA 5 overall. However, it is essential to note that GTA 5 enjoyed unprecedented success, and such sales figures are exceptional within the franchise.
Naturally, there is a possibility of a delay, as it has become commonplace for AAA games to experience multiple delays. The initial release date that is announced may be subject to revisions, potentially resulting in a delay of 3-18 months. However, given the lengthy gap since the previous game’s release, Rockstar may have more confidence in selecting a release date and adhering to it—especially considering the significant revenue forecasts associated with that specific time period. A delay at this stage may negatively impact their stock performance. However, it is far worse to release a GTA 6 that is not yet ready, as we have seen with Cyberpunk 2077.
GTA 6 is anticipated to be a massive game, and with its potential release just over two years away, excitement continues to build.
Update: To provide further context on the scale of GTA 5, it’s important to understand why Take-Two’s ambitious promises for GTA 6 make sense. In 2013, within just 24 hours of release, Grand Theft Auto 5 sold $815 million or approximately 11.21 million copies, which was double the predictions made by analysts. To put this into perspective, a decade later, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom recently sold 10 million copies in its first three days, which is considered a remarkable achievement even in today’s gaming landscape.
Just six weeks after its release, GTA 5 had already shipped 29 million copies, surpassing the lifetime sales of GTA 4.
In December of 2014, just over a year since its release, GTA 5 reached 45 million copies shipped, including 10 million copies of the re-release for next-gen consoles.
By April 2018, GTA 5 had generated $6 billion in revenue, making it one of the most profitable entertainment products of all time. This success was not only due to the base sales of the game but also the revenue generated from GTA Online microtransactions.
To date, GTA 5 has sold a staggering 180 million copies, making it the second highest-selling game of all time, with only Minecraft surpassing its sales numbers at a significantly lower price point. GTA 5’s sales outshine other popular games like Wii Sports, PUBG, Mario Kart 8, Red Dead Redemption 2, and Pokemon Red/Blue by a margin of 100 to 130 million copies. No other full-priced premium game comes close to matching its sales figures.
Given the incredible success of GTA 5, it is clear that GTA 6 is poised to be a massive hit. Take-Two’s expectations for the game’s sales and revenue are not overstated, and if anything, they may even exceed those expectations. The video game market has expanded significantly since the release of GTA 5 in 2013, which means that GTA 6 has the potential to achieve even higher sales figures. However, it’s important to note that reaching the same level of success may take time, as it took GTA 5 ten years and three console generations to reach its monumental sales.
As for the delayed announcement of GTA 6 by Rockstar, one primary reason could be their concern about impacting the ongoing spending in GTA 5. The game continues to sell well, and many customers who purchase new gaming consoles often buy GTA 5 alongside them. Additionally, the popular GTA Online mode has generated billions of dollars in player spending over the years. While GTA 6 is anticipated to have its own online mode, it is likely that there will be some starting over, with limited carryover from GTA 5. Players who spend money on microtransactions in GTA 5 may reduce their spending once they realize the newer version will make their current choices somewhat obsolete.
It is reasonable to assume that a significant portion of the GTA Online player base will shift to GTA 6, although GTA Online is unlikely to completely disappear. Rockstar is likely delaying the announcement to keep players engaged and spending in GTA 5 for as long as possible. There may not be a need to build excessive hype for a game that is expected to sell 100 million copies effortlessly.
When it comes to GTA 6’s online mode, it is possible that Rockstar will adopt a stronger live service model, building on the success of GTA 5 Online. DLC expansions may take priority over traditional DLC releases. Additionally, there may be an increased focus on competitive multiplayer elements and the introduction of live game features such as seasons and battle passes. This direction aligns with trends in the gaming industry, as even games like Diablo have embraced seasons and battle passes. Alongside these additions, substantial microtransaction sales are expected to continue. It seems likely that Rockstar will embrace these strategies while offering a variety of new experiences in GTA 6’s online world.
